AI CTR Impact · Methodology

Know exactly what a citation is worth in clicks

AIORadar estimates how AI Overviews are adding or draining clicks, on your real Search Console data, so you fix the gaps that recover the most traffic first. Here is precisely how the number is built, and the research behind every factor.

Why put a number on it

Prioritise by real value

Every citation gap carries a click estimate, so you work the ones worth the most traffic first instead of guessing.

See what is at stake

One net number tells you whether AI Overviews are adding or draining clicks this period, in figures you can act on.

Defensible, not hand-wavy

Built on your real GSC data plus published research, so the estimate holds up in front of a client or a boss.

How the number is built

Four inputs, one estimate

01

Your real Search Console data

Clicks, impressions, and average position per query over the last 28 days, plus whether each query shows an AI Overview and whether you are cited.

02

An industry CTR baseline

The click-through rate you would expect at your position with no AI Overview, from published positional research (FirstPageSage 2023, Backlinko 2024).

03

Research-derived AIO adjustment

The baseline is adjusted by your citation status using factors from current studies (see below).

04

A net estimated click delta

Adjusted CTR minus baseline, times your real impressions, summed across your queries. One number: are AI Overviews helping or hurting.

The adjustment factors

+120%
Cited

More than double the clicks per impression. Seer Interactive, 2026.

−34%
Not cited

About a third of clicks lost beneath the answer. Ahrefs.

−15%
Mentioned

Named in the AI Overview text, but not linked.

These are estimates, by design

Your clicks, impressions, and positions are real Google Search Console data. The baseline CTR curve and the AI Overview factors are drawn from published research and will not match any single site exactly. Use the net click delta to prioritise where to earn citations, not as a precise revenue forecast.

Common questions

Do AI Overviews reduce clicks?
Usually, unless you are cited. Published studies put the organic click-through-rate drop on queries with an AI Overview at roughly 34% to 61% (Ahrefs, Seer Interactive). Cited pages buck the trend: Seer's 2026 update found they earn more than double the clicks per impression of non-cited pages. AIORadar models both sides against your own query data so you see the net result for your site.
Are these numbers exact?
No, and we do not present them as such. The baseline curve and the AIO adjustment factors come from published industry research, so the modelled CTR is an estimate. Your clicks, impressions, and positions are your real Google Search Console data. Treat the net click delta as a directional signal for prioritisation, not an exact forecast.
How are local queries handled?
Local-intent queries are treated separately. On many local searches the local pack, not the AI Overview, drives most clicks, so applying the same AIO discount would overstate the impact. The model accounts for this so your local queries are not unfairly penalised.

See the model run on your own data

Connect Search Console and scan your keywords to see your net estimated click impact from AI Overviews.